$11.56 Billion. +30% Growth. Stock Down 25%. Shopify Is Winning and Losing at the Same Time.

Shopify hit $11.56B revenue in 2025, up 30%, yet the stock trades at $112 vs a $1,762 peak. 70% of revenue comes from Merchant Solutions — payments, capital, shipping — making it financial infrastructure, not just a website builder. The bear case: AI tools have lowered the barrier to building without Shopify. The bull case: switching costs are brutal for established merchants with 15+ apps, Shop Pay conversion rates justify the fee, and the 10,000-app ecosystem is not replicable. The real threat: TikTok Shop and Amazon offer traffic + logistics + payments, not just infrastructure. The stock is pricing the gap between a hyper-growth platform and a mature infrastructure company.